So over the next few months, I will try to compile a list of the possible threats to our future survival, prioritise and research each one to understand it better. Hopefully at the end of this exercise, I'll be able to form a more educated opinion on the question I posed above. And for whoever else is interested, perhaps this will be an interesting exercise too.
Comments and suggestions are welcome, the first step is to compile the list of trends (and some of the direct effects) that will shape our future. That can be found at the bottom of the page. From that list, I'm also posing myself some questions, which I hope to answer soon.
Questions
- How will Singapore be affected by a double-dip recession, and how has the casino affected the resilience of our economy and our exposure to the rest of the world?
- What are the biggest military threats to Singapore, and are we equipped to handle them? What else needs to be done?
- How will the combination of declining birth rate, Singaporeans working overseas and increasing immigration affect our identity as Singaporeans and national institutions such as national service?
- What are the threats to racial and religious harmony in Singapore, and what is the significance of recent government actions to restrict certain activities among religious groups?
- What does the rise of China mean for Singapore? How will it affect our economic, diplomatic and defence policies? How will it affect our society?
- Taking into account recent changes in CPF policy (such as cuts in employer contributions), is this system able to to support our aging population?
General Trends (Laundry list of ideas)
Global
Dependence on Global Economy
- Double dip recession
- Global impact on local export-led economy
- Decline of USD as world reserve currency
- Revaluation of Yuan
- Impact of casino
- Status as trade and transport hub
Security Threats
- Terrorism
- Cyber Crime / Cyber Warfare
- Conventional threats
Globalisation
- Decline of nation-state, national identity and nationalism
- Growing PR population and NS
- Brain Drain
Rising China
- Risk of global power transition / contest for influence in Southeast Asia
- Conflict over Taiwan / Spratly Islands
Regional
- Political and ethnic instability in Malaysia
- Political unrest in Thailand
- Resolution of longstanding bilateral issues
- Relations with neighbours
Domestic
Aging population / Declining birth rate
Racial and religious harmony
Growing income gap
Income Tax and CPF
Environment
- Environmental Damage and Pollution
- Water
Useful References
Statistics - Economic Indicators (Singstat charts)
4 Challenges Facing Singapore (National Day Rally 2009)
3 comments:
I've often felt that Singapore's technocratic mindset limits the perspectives (and therefore problem definition and solutions) far too much. Anything slightly 'offbeat' falls into the 'impossible' bin.
Take the terrorism threat, for instance. It is usually defined as a criminal or intelligence problem, but what of the sociological roots? I'm speculating here, but the typical S'porean chinese might think that someone like Mas Selamat has no 'sensible' reason to do what he is alleged to have done. He could have found decent work and would not have faced too much discrimination in a society that polices these matters.
But how many of you know what it is like to walk in the shoes of an average working class Malay Singaporean. How many know his religious, cultural and social millieu deeply - how many care to know? Again, being speculative, but I suspect that most non-Malay Singaporeans have zero appreciation of the 'golden age' of Malay movies made in Jalan Ampas and the subsequent decline of the Malay language as the common language in the country, replaced by English and Mandarin at all levels of society. How might the ordinary Malay Singaporean feel about these historical developments? Now, without even the faintest appreciation for what might be deep seated grumblings among some members of these communities, how is anyone in a position of authority able to really grapple with the issues at hand??
I see little richness and thickness in the kinds of descriptions for this and other problems. Instead, most of the time the problems are formulated in a neat mathematical equation whereby y=mx+C and all the factors are already known clearly while those that are difficult to define neatly are put aside. Okay, I will admit that I myself do not know much at all, but if you are interested to think about this a bit then you might want to read Lily Zubaidah's "The Singapore Dilemma" - or perhaps you may already have and in that case I shall have been shown to be an ignorant scold!
Peace.
veii, thanks for your thoughtful response and suggestions. Recent statements from our leaders have hinted to me that they are concerned about racial and religious harmony, but I haven't been to clear on the exact reasons. Hopefully this will help me find out. Maybe in the next few weeks they will say more, too :)
LZ Rahim's book seems rather difficult to get hold of, but I've found a number of her articles on politics, nationalism and race, so hopefully that will capture the essence of her ideas as well.
Thanks!
Thanks for the appreciation!
Well, the terrorism thing was just one example at the top of my mind. Broadly, I feel that there are serious problems arising from a particular form of 'orthodox' thinking in SG, and a failure to break out of highly constrained models and concepts appears to make things worse.
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