Sunday, July 04, 2010

survivor (kabul) - an afghanistan exit strategy

The lunchtime conversation turned to how the coalition forces could make a respectable exit from Afghanistan, and quickly began to converge around three key themes:
  1. And lasting solution must involve Afghanistan's neighbours (Iran, Pakistan), since they have the biggest long-term stake in its stability.
  2. Any regime set up must be led by a "strong man", not someone the West is artificially propping up
  3. The regime need not be democratic, because we shouldn't enforce Western norms on a very non-Western society. But the people should be given a say in the type of government that is formed.


Merging these themes together, I came to the logical conclusion that Afghanistan needs a radio talk show, an idea that came to be dubbed Survivor (Kabul). The rules are simple:
  1. Anyone can audition, from all parts of Afghanistan and surrounding countries.
  2. Participants will take part on discussions on the future system of governance for Afghanistan that will be aired day and night. No decision needs to be reached, but views will be shared, as they no doubt will be around all the radio receivers. (It has to be a radio talk show because there is very limited TV in Afghanistan.)
  3. Every week, inhabitants of Afghanistan will use their mobile phones (the only modern piece of technology they own) to vote people off the show.
  4. Others will probably be blown up by IEDs and suicide bombs, but this should be accepted as a normal part of tribal rivalry for ascendancy.
  5. At the end of several weeks, the number of participants should be whittled down to a committee that could then be charged with drafting up the final design of what the government should look like, and maybe even form part of that government.
By the end of the show, we would hopefully have a few strong men: politicians representing the strongest constituencies and interest groups, and warlords with the financial and political clout to buy the necessary SMSes. We should also have a few slumdogs, who have a clear grasp of the political sentiment on the ground and the political acumen to reach the top without getting killed. And we should have some representation from the surrounding countries, which can surely afford to buy a enough SMSes for their favourite representatives.

It's an out of the box idea, but why shouldn't it work? And what would the coalition lose by trying?

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