giving christians a bad name

This was another part of a very interesting and thought-provoking conversation I had with two friends, an e.

They were telling me that Christians in Singapore should do something about the Charismatic churches, because they are giving Christians a bad name through their provocative public attempts at evangelism and insulting other religions. And if nothing was done soon, the government would probably crack down on them with the religious harmony act.

Firstly, what is a charismatic? Charismatics associated with the use of spiritual gifts (such as speaking in tongues), akin to Christians of the New Testament. Some say it is a denomination, but I think it is more accurate to describe it as a movement as churches of other denominations might also be charismatic to various degrees. And the most prominent Charismatic churches are non-denominational (or independant).

Secondly, what should other Christians do about them? Although I may not agree entirely with the extravagance of their styles of worship, or teachings such as the prosperity gospel, I am not aware that any of their doctrine is wrong. Other churches that deviate from the Bible are labeled as cults and churches would actively warn their members against them, the differences with charismatics are more like the ceremonial or cultural differences you'd find between denominations. Furthermore, there is no higher authority to censure non-denominational churches for such actions.

But, my friends argue, the charismatic churches have come to dominate the public face of Christianity. (I infer that they are referring to unwelcome street evangelism, extravagant property investment and pastors restrained for speaking against other religions.) Hence they feel that this is damaging to Christians in general. This is not about theology, it is about society. So shouldn't the rest of the Christians do something before the government is forced to take some sort of action?

So let's look at the Maintenance of Religious Harmony Act. From what I can gather, the key clause of concern here is 8(1)(a):

8. —(1) The Minister may make a restraining order against any priest, monk, pastor, imam, elder, office-bearer or any other person who is in a position of authority in any religious group or institution or any member thereof for the purposes specified in subsection (2) where the Minister is satisfied that that person has committed or is attempting to commit any of the following acts:

(a) causing feelings of enmity, hatred, ill-will or hostility between different religious groups;

Most of the other clauses are more concerned with political or subversive activities "under the guise of, propagating or practising any religious belief". So the actual act of evangelism is perfectly legal, as long as you do not provoke "feelings of enmity, hatred, ill-will or hostility".

I can't claim any expertise in these matters, and I have just been trying to deepen my own understanding in these matters with a little help from Google. Any comments or corrections on the statements here are welcomed.

is religion selfish?

I had an interesting philosophical discussion over lots of wine the other day with an atheist and an agnostic friend, both impressively well versed with Christianity and other religions.

There are many reasons why people have religion, but I figure it usually ties in to the meaning of life and what happens after death. In my very logical way, I deduce that if you believe there is a god, then you would want to figure out which is the true god. Clearly most religions, especially monotheistic ones, are mutually exclusive, and various religions offer different teachings about how you should live your life, and what happens after life. Many religions preach good works, others teach confession or faith, for example; the afterlife implications include entering heaven or hell, attaining enlightenment or being reincarnated as a cockroach. So whether the prospect is of damnation or reincarnation, wouldn't most people want to figure out which is the right god and religion?

My agnostic friend rejected this view as being too selfish. If there really is a god, a supreme being, shouldn't religion be about worshiping and glorifying this god, and developing your personal commune with this god, rather than looking out for your own selfish interests, he asked.

I was rather stumped at the point. Had I been so selfish all along? Too much wine perhaps. So we moved on to another interesting topic of charismatic churches which I will write about another time. But later that night, I think I sorted it out in my head.

At least for Christianity, we are taught that God first loved us, and because we had destroyed our own lives with sin, he suffered and died for us so that we could once again be saved and spend eternity with him in heaven. So is it selfish to want to go to heaven? On one level, I guess it is. But at the same time, we are not just satisfying our own desires, but also God's desire for us. The Bible's parable of the Prodigal Son is God's own analogy for his relationship with us. The prodigal son sinned greatly against his father, and when he was penniless and destitute he was too ashamed to return to his father's house. Would it have been selfish of him to want to re-enter the family mansion - yes, certainly. Yet in the end it was because his father loved him so much, he would not bear to see his son suffer and brought him home. It is natural to want salvation and eternity in heaven, yet we should rightly be ashamed of our human condition, and recognise that we are not worthy; but ultimately if we have the personal commune with God, we would also do it because we want to make him happy. And we would also do our utmost to bring all the other prodigal children home as well.

survivor (kabul) - an afghanistan exit strategy

The lunchtime conversation turned to how the coalition forces could make a respectable exit from Afghanistan, and quickly began to converge around three key themes:

1. And lasting solution must involve Afghanistan's neighbours (Iran, Pakistan), since they have the biggest long-term stake in its stability.
2. Any regime set up must be led by a "strong man", not someone the West is artificially propping up
3. The regime need not be democratic, because we shouldn't enforce Western norms on a very non-Western society. But the people should be given a say in the type of government that is formed.

Merging these themes together, I came to the logical conclusion that Afghanistan needs a radio talk show, an idea that came to be dubbed Survivor (Kabul). The rules are simple:

1. Anyone can audition, from all parts of Afghanistan and surrounding countries.
2. Participants will take part on discussions on the future system of governance for Afghanistan that will be aired day and night. No decision needs to be reached, but views will be shared, as they no doubt will be around all the radio receivers. (It has to be a radio talk show because there is very limited TV in Afghanistan.)
3. Every week, inhabitants of Afghanistan will use their mobile phones (the only modern piece of technology they own) to vote people off the show.
4. Others will probably be blown up by IEDs and suicide bombs, but this should be accepted as a normal part of tribal rivalry for ascendancy.
5. At the end of several weeks, the number of participants should be whittled down to a committee that could then be charged with drafting up the final design of what the government should look like, and maybe even form part of that government.

By the end of the show, we would hopefully have a few strong men: politicians representing the strongest constituencies and interest groups, and warlords with the financial and political clout to buy the necessary SMSes. We should also have a few slumdogs, who have a clear grasp of the political sentiment on the ground and the political acumen to reach the top without getting killed. And we should have some representation from the surrounding countries, which can surely afford to buy a enough SMSes for their favourite representatives.

It's an out of the box idea, but why shouldn't it work? And what would the coalition lose by trying?

google nexus one review - first impressions

Much has already been written about whether the Nexus One is an iPhone-killer, with its beautiful AMOLED screen, lightning-fast Snapdragon processor and lamentable music player. After using it for a week, what I am writing here are my observations on how well the Nexus serves to increase my personal productivity and mobility.

My points of comparison are not the iPhone which I have never owned, but various HP, Dopod, Palm and Nokia smartphones and PDAs that I have been using over more than 10 years. So this is as much about the phone as it is about how Android compares with Windows Mobile, Symbian and Palm OS.

Data Connectivity

My first impression of the Nexus One was when I popped in my Virgin Mobile pre-paid card and it connected seamlessly to the Virgin 3G network, without so much as a prompt about configuration. To me this was not a trivial matter considering it had taken me 2 days of phone and e-mail support to get my previous HP IPaq 612 online. And also considering that the Nexus One is not meant to be sold in Australia, this gives me confidence that it can connect seamlessly anywhere in the world.

Google Contacts

No review ever talks about Google Contacts (GC), but I think this is one of the best parts of a Google phone. GC first pulled all my contacts from GMail onto the phone. That's probably a no-brainer. It then merged these with all the matching profiles of friends that it found on Facebook. I was then able to upload in CSV format, all my remaining contacts from Outlook as well as my Nokia phone. I keep two lists because everyone I ever met is in my Outlook, but I wouldn't want that on my Nokia phone which has been my primary device for making calls. In GC, I am able to specify a My Contacts group that resides on the phone, while everyone else is kept safely out of the way in the GC cloud.

The real beauty of this is that for the first time, I have got all the phone, e-mail and even Facebook info of all my acquaintances in one place. And then I can run the Find Duplicates function to weed out multiple entries.

Notifications

I think it's just great how my phone now notifies me when I have new e-mail, Facebook messages, auctions ending and I'm sure the list can go on forever. It definitely saves me from actively logging in to check. My previous HP phone wouldn't last a day if I left it permanently connected, but the Nexus does a pretty decent job even with me playing games and going through my photos. These are things I would never have done on my old phone because all the Apps sucked.

Android Marketplace

The Android Marketplace is great, and really easy to find and install new apps. iPhone users will probably find this passe, but coming from Windows Mobile it is app heaven.

File Synchronisation

One thing I don't like about Android is that it doesn't provide a facility to synchronise a folder with the computer. There are a number of apps you can download to do this via the cloud, but I really rather sync some things directly such as all my Keepass passwords.

Broadband Tethering

The other thing I expect of a 3G phone is the ability to connect my laptop to the internet when I don't have wi-fi. This is a native function in Windows Mobile but not so in Android, and I have yet to find a decent App that does it well.

Well, these are my initial impressions, but I will certainly build and update this list as I explore the phone and the multitude of apps further.

market stocktake III

It's been almost exactly a year since the last time I tried to clearly articulate my investment strategy. It's interesting to look back at the last one, since I timed the market bottom almost perfectly and all my picks did very well. Unfortunately I exited way too early, so while I recouped most of my losses from the crash of 2007/2008, I probably could have made much more if I had greater confidence.

I guess the bottom line is, I'm still a bear. And while I've ridden some of the subsequent rallies, I'm still waiting for the final correction. But first let's take a quick glance at the opinions out there.

The Pragmatic Capitalist has a very nice summary of 2010 investment outlooks from a variety of sources. Among Investment Banks, most are predicting a slightly positive year, probably in the 10% range. The notable exceptions are Morgan Stanley and Credit Suisse. Among the Hedge Funds and Investment Gurus, the sentiment is far more negative. Probably the most extreme prediction is by Elliot Wave Theorist Robert Prechter, who is now saying that we will see a crash that will bring the market to an even lower point than we have seen so far.

I've been building up short positions since January, and over the roller coaster of the last month have been reducing long holdings. While a crash seemed quite possible a week ago, the last 5 days have seen the Dow and S&P recover more than half their losses for the month. But the volume is less convincing with higher volume on the declines than the rallies, so next week should be interesting. There remain a few black swans on the horizon: sovereign debt, consumer credit, (if I could name all of them they wouldn't be black swans) and unemployment and consumer spending are still far from comforting. But if we make a new high it's probably time to go back into waiting mode.

So what I have now is a portfolio of mutual funds and stocks in the hands of my financial manages (who are both still bulish). I am hedging the downside with short options, having sold almost all my own long positions. And by gut feel, this is how I should fare based on the following market outcomes for 2010:

• +20% or better: Profits on my long holdings should exceed short losses for a moderate profit
• Between -10% to +10%: Will probably have a slight loss due to the options expiring out of the money
• -20% or worse: Should make a pretty bundle due to the very high leverage on my short options

Well this should be an interesting year to test my understanding and application of some new financial instruments, maybe in another year's time I can look back and have another good laugh.

free software essentials

I just spent the weekend re-formatting my computer to install a clean version of Windows 7 (as opposed to me quick an dirty upgrade a few weeks back). I love re-formatting my computer, because it organises the harddisk, cleans out the registry and gives me a chance to download and reinstall the latest version of all my software. I must admit that it was more fun when I was a college student with 100 Mbps compared to the measly 1 Mbps I am surviving on now.

Over the years, I've amassed a collection of what I call my software essentials - the free software that I will reinstall first after each time I wipe the slate clean. I thought it would be useful to list them out here, maybe some of you will find them useful, or even better maybe you will have other software to suggest to me!

Startup Essentials
Things to install before anything else ... essential for surviving in a wired world

Avast Antivirus - Always the first thing to install, even before connecting back to the internet. I switched to Avast early this year because it was one of the only AV at that time that supported Windows 7 RC, and it's so good I've never looked back.

Google Pack - This is a collection of starter software endorsed by Google, and it is definitely a great way to get started. The system also automatically updates all the components. Google Pack includes Google Chrome, Spyware Doctor, Picasa, Firefox, Google Desktop, Adobe Reader, Skype, Google Apps, Realplayer, Google Earth and Google Talk. Talk about value for effort, a few clicks and they are all automatically installed. The ones in bold are the ones I always install.

While I love all Google stuff, the ones I use most extensively are Chrome and Picasa. Chrome is lightning fast and is my main browser. Picasa is a superb photo/video viewer and organiser, and also automates all my photo uploads to Facebook and Smugmug. (One thing I'm puzzled is why it comes with Picasa 3.1 rather than 3.6)

Windows Live Essentials - Microsoft now also has it's own collection of starter software. Theirs includes Messenger, Mail, Writer, Photo Gallery, Movie Maker and Family Safety. I don't use quite as many as I do with Google, but this is a nice collection nonetheless. The Windows Movie Maker is probably one of the easiest to use, although I personally find this Live version a bit more confusing than it's predecessors.

Java - You can't do without the Java Runtime Environment if you want to run any of the multitude of applets that keep the web going.

Adobe Flash - Similarly, you can't surf half the websites out there if you don't have Flash.

Media Players
For watching all kinds of media

VLC Player - This is by far the most powerful media player out there, although it may not be the prettiest. If VLC can't play your movie, there's probably something wrong with it.

iTunes + Quicktime - You'll need this if you have an iPod, and many cameras take videos in either MOV or MP4 quicktime formats. Some websites embed quicktime videos too. Personally I have always preferred Winamp, but since I became an iPod owner it kind of limited my choices.

Youtube Downloader - For saving your favourite Youtube videos, Youtube Downloader can save them to your hard disk and convert them to a variety of common useful video formats.

Mobility Aids
Useful software for road warriors

Windows Mobile Device Centre - I really loved Windows 7 RC when it was launched, but had to switch back to Vista because my Windows Mobile PDA didn't work. I'm glad they finally fixed this problem with the new WMDC.

Nokia PC Suite - This allows me to back up my phone book and send sms from the PC, if I am so lazy. There is a new Ovi Suite but this still seems the more practical option.

Keepass Password Safe - The modern world requires us to remember a thousand and one different passwords. I encrypt mine on the PDA using Keepass, which also allows me to access it from the PC by synchronizing. This has saved me many times when I visit obscure sites.

Dropbox - Allows me to synchronize selected folders across different computers, as well as make them available online via web access. Great for mobile people who use multiple machines.

Free Trials
Software that isn't exactly free, but provides free trial versions with good functionality, mostly full functionality for a trial period that should be enough to accomplish a one-off project.

WinRAR Archiver - Compression tool for ZIP, RAR and any other format you are likely to come across. Supposed to be a limited time trial but seems to last forever.

Magic DVD Ripper - For converting those DVDs to DivX for easier storage.

dBpoweramp - For ripping audio CDs to mp3 or a variety of other formats.

Corel Video Studio Pro X2 - A superb video editing tool that works with multiple video formats and gives you a 30-day free trial that should be enough to complete any small project.

Sothink Movie DVD Maker - Puts all you videos onto a DVD complete with menu systems and choice of background pictures and music. The free trials has a green screen before each video, but much more tolerable than the watermarks imposed by other similar software.

The Name Game

It's interesting how people attach different associations to names.

Wife likes names like Hannah, Naomi and Noah. But they sound really archaic to me.

I like Ariel, which means "Lion of God". It's also the name of a celebrated Israeli commando, general, and prime minister. Wife says it just makes her think of "Under the sea..."

I suppose the associations we attach to names are a product of our various life experiences. Probably the most universal association for these Christian names are the characters from which they are named in the bible. That is why Hannah and Noah remind me of a stooped old woman and a man with a shiny white beard.

Slightly stronger would be the names of characters we have seen on screen, or celebrities. That's probably why Ethan is so popular nowadays. And I quite like the name Delilah even though it's an evil character in the bible, and I attribute it to liking the Plain White T's song Hey There Delilah so much. But even though Wife makes me watch Hannah Montanna every night, I still can't get the image of the old woman out of my mind. I'm sure it works for others though, which is probably why Hannah ranks #9 on the most popular names in the U.S.

Of course the strongest association would be with people we know. I know a lot of Kevins, and I like all of them. That's probably why I like the name Kevin. And there's quite a few names I like that Wife rejected because they bring back distasteful memories. On the other hand, she likes names like Blake and Giovanni which probably sound normal to her, having grown up in Western societies. But to me they just sound so foreign and wrong.

So I suppose if any of the people around me gives their kid my name, I will take it as a pretty high compliment. Not because I'm so egotistical as to think they are naming it after me, but because I will know I have not sullied the name in their minds.

google toys

This is a pretty hilarious article, I couldn't resist posting:

Geniuses At Play, On the Job

By DAVID POGUE

Published: February 25, 2009

http://www.nytimes.com/2009/02/26/technology/personaltech/26pogue.html?_r=1&8dpc

"But any time you cram some 20,000 of the world’s smartest people into one company, you can expect to grow a garden of unrelated ideas. Especially when you give some of those geniuses one workday a week — Google’s famous “20 percent time”— to work on whatever projects fan their passions."

This is a guide to some of the best and lesser-known features developed by google, ranging from the ultra-practical to the hilarious, and a little bit of both. This is one of my favourites:

GMAIL LABS Gmail is already the world’s best free Web-based e-mail service, with terrific organization tools and a superb spam blocker. But if you click Settings and then Labs, you find a huge list of on/off switches for cool enhancements.

There’s Text Message in Chat (send text messages to your friends’ cellphones from within Google Chat or Gmail); Offline Mail (work on Gmail when you’re not online); Canned Responses (build a menu of stock answers to your mail); Multiple Inboxes (manages mail by auto-creating multiple mail folders); and the delightful Send & Archive (one click sends your reply and removes the original from the list).

Here, too, is Mail Goggles, which is intended to avert the kind of personal disaster that can result when you send mail while drunk. During periods that you specify (for example, weekend nights from 10 p.m. to 6 a.m.), this feature prevents you from sending mail until you’ve answered five mental math problems in 60 seconds. (But those Google geniuses can probably do it even after a few pitchers of margaritas.)

And here are another few nifty tricks:

SECRETS OF THE SEARCH BOX Usually, whatever you type into Google’s Search box is treated as a quest for Web pages. Certain kinds of information, however, get special treatment.

For example, you can type in an equation (like “23*9/3.4+234”); press Enter to see the answer.

Think of Google, too, for conversions. For example, type “83 yards in inches,” “500 euros in dollars,” or “grams in 3.2 pounds”; then press Enter.

Google is also a dictionary (type “define:ersatz”), package tracker (type your FedEx or U.P.S.tracking number), global Yellow Pages (“phonebook:home depot norwalk ct”), meteorologist (“weather san diego”), flight tracker (“AA 15”), stock ticker (“AAPL” or “MSFT”), and the world’s best movie-listings site (type “movies:10024,” or whatever your ZIP code is).

stock market stocktake II

The market has been trading sideways for almost two months now, and most of my expectations have not been met. I expected a correction in December to cash in my shorts, but that didn't happen. Then I expected a rally on Obama's inauguration, but that too was muted. And although the market did reject Geithner's initial rescue plan, the effect on the markets is still dubious. Nevertheless, I have also begun the process of slow accumulation, because I think we are bottoming out and it is time to start building my portfolio for the long haul again. I'm going slow, because I still think there might be one more major correction, but as yet it hasn't materialised.

So this is a chance for me to review the logic of the stocks and funds that I intend to accumulate over the next few months. This is really to capture a snapshot of my thought process for personal reference in the future ... read on at your own peril.

China

I really don't expect consumer growth to pick up in the U.S. (or even Europe) anytime soon, which is why I'm not particularly optimistic on Singapore's near-term recovery. It looks like the engine of growth for Asia will be China, so since everyone's growth will depend on China I might as well just invest directly in China. China has also been putting out some very aggressive stimulus packages to build up domestic demand, so although they have huge unemployment problems with all the factories closing, my money is on our motherland to recover first.

India

I'm pretty confident in India as a long-term bet (like 10 years) although I'm not entirely sure how it will fare in the next year or two. I just saw a report yesterday that the only three countries in the world to grow by more than 8% year to date are Brazil, Russia and China. That's the BR and C in BRIC. India has dropped almost 2%. So maybe instead of India I'll just focus on BRIC.

Vietnam

I first got interested in Vietnam when I visited it about 7 years ago. Back then, I wasn't into investing but applying the logic of Jim Roger's The Investment Biker, I was sure that this hardworking people just escaped from the grip of Communism would surely do well in the next century. They have potential very similar to China a decade ago, and they can also rely on China as a hinterland of sorts. The Singapore government evidently thinks so too, because they have invested in commercial districts in both Ho Chi Minh and Hanoi. My interest in Vietnam was rekindled with another visit to Hanoi last year where it was evident they have already come a long way. So now that prices are down, it's time to do a little shopping.

Australia

Australia has been badly hit by the current economic crisis. As the commodities boom ended, their exports have dropped tremendously. And in the current climate of fear, investors pulled out all their Aussie dollars and dumped them in the Yen instead for refuge. So Australia has been doubly-hit. In the months ahead, I expect both trends to reverse, so a strong recovery (at least in the stock market) should be on the cards. Maybe after all the fires go out.

Google

I've been a big fan of Google since I first read about it in 1998. Perhaps it is finally time to buy its stock. Firstly, tech stocks in general have high cash levels, which is why the NASDAQ has been doing pretty well. I'm also tempted to test the economic theory that periods of high inflation are good for employers because they reduce the real cost of wages. It looks like America's money-printing is finally catching up with it, and if there is any company that pays out most of it's operating cost in wages, it is Google - they hardly make any physical products (no raw materials) and 40% of their workforce are PhDs. The downside is that precisely because Google's ad sales continue to well, their stockprice hasn't been impacted as much so there is less upside potential. But I figure it is a decently safe bet. Reading Google Planet now reminds me why I have always been enamoured of this company.

Berkshire Hathaway

My Jan 2008 edition of Fortune said to buy BRK because in an economic downturn, you can trust a smart person like Warren Buffet to know where to put his money. Sadly, when the entire market crashed, there really was nowhere to hide. Good thing I didn't buy then, but I'm thinking now the time is becoming ripe. (I'm still really sore that I missed the boat when I tried to buy BRK.B for 2650 some months back. I think it hit an 52-wk intra-day low of 2651 that day.) And reading Warren Buffet's biography now, I really do get the feeling this is a business genius I don't mind putting my money on.

Apart from these, most of my previous stock picks still hold. The exceptions are CHK which I have liquidated, and NVDA which I anticipate will weaken in the near term due to weak consumer demand, so I may wait a while to buy more. I am basically in accumulation mode now, trying to put all my money into the market over the next 3-6 months so I can just sit back and enjoy.

accounting 109

Over Chinese New Year, I finally found the time to update all my investing records for the past 18 months. The trading has been so fast and furious, especially the last 6 months, I really lost track of my progress. Now I finally know how much money I've lost. Interestingly enough, it wasn't all that bad.

From the time I started investing in 2005 until now, I still have a slight net profit. So I actually could smile.

More interestingly, I realised that 2/3 of my losses came from my two financial managers. Considering that they manage less than half my assets, that's pretty damn pathetic! They weren't making as much money as me in the good times either ... so I thought they were risk averse and would weather the downturn when it finally came. They were supposed to be my hedge against my own brashness and inexperience!

Ok, no more money for them. I guess I shall be going solo from now on. And looks like pretty exciting times to come :)

I also realised that the lions share of my profits really came from investing in mutual funds. I invest mainly in country funds based on my understanding of geopolitical events. It's how I first started investing, and it looks like it is still the most profitable. So for the next few years, my money is on China, India, Vietnam and Australia.

It's been a bumpy ride, I hope we take off soon!

long with short stops

It's been almost a month since I first started recording my trading activity. In the current volatile market, a month is like a lifetime. The biggest change in my strategy stems from a friend introducing me to the concept of short ETFs. Short selling has been in the news a lot, especially when it was temporarily banned for financials. I'd always thought I needed special features enabled with my broker, but these ETFs allow you to short a wide variety of asset classes.

So my new strategy is that while I still believe the market is fundamentally undervalued and will go up significantly in the next 2-5 years, I have also adopted the strategy of using shorts to speculate on the volatility and reap some profits on the way down.

The strong rally in the last week of October also allowed me to pare down my portfolio to my core holdings, as listed in my previous post. Given the unexpected strength of the rally, I also took the opportunity of reducing some of my holdings, with the intention to repurchase them at a lower price since I expect the market to plummet.

Recent Movements:
POSCO: Sold half holdings at $70
NVidia: Purchased at $7.1, sold at $8.9 and repurchased again yesterday at $7.01, closed at $7.9.
Chesapeake: Sold at $21.5, it went quite a bit higher but too bad, I don't feel I understand it well enough to hold

Short Plays:
I started shorting Russell 2000 (TWM) on Oct 28, way too early. But since then, I think I've made good.
TWM: Bought at $125, bought at $105, cut loss at $94, bought again $98, halved holding at $133, closed at $106 on 13 Nov
Then I decided to be even more adventurous and play with emerging markets.
EEV: Bought at $81, bought at $92, bought at $93, halved holding at $99, closed at $75 on 13 Nov.

Having reduced my short positions, I'm just going to sit on the rest and see what the weekend brings. Last week the China stimulus package turned my portfolio red, I'm concerned that this weekend wither a bailout for the car industry or some agreement at G20 will do the same.

some singapore advice for obama

This is pretty random, but I always feel pride when Singapore reflects well in the global media:

Invest in the political positions as well as in the permanent professional staff.

Too many politicians overvalue the former and undervalue the latter. But you just can't build lasting greatness without staffing the Administration with competent professionals at all levels, including young staffers with potentials who will continue strengthening the country long after the Presidential mandate is over. At the time of its independence, Singapore's founding fathers realized that without natural resources or scale its only way to grow was to invest in talent. They systematically have attracted the best people, both to key political appointments and its exemplary civil service, for over four decades now. As a result, since 1965 Singapore's gross national product per capita multiplied by a factor of eight in real terms (constant dollars), while that in the U.S. multiplied by a factor of less than three.

From Claudio Fernández-Aráoz, "Obama's First Priority: Hiring the Right People", BusinessWeek, Nov 7 2008
http://www.businessweek.com/managing/content/nov2008/ca2008117_893589.htm

belt tightening is here

For dinner today, we went to have crabs at Uncle Leong's Seafood at AMK Ave 3. Instead of waiting at least half an hour, as is customary on a Sunday, we were shown to a table immediately. Strange.

Then coming back to Serangoon Gardens after dinner, we had no trouble finding parking. That is nothing short of amazing.

So I conclude that consumer spending has begun steep decline. We are surely in recession now. I'd better go eat crabs more often while there is no line at Uncle Leong's.

stock market stocktake

The past few months have provided me lots of excitement in the stock market. I was initially very gleeful at successfully avoiding the spectacular sub-prime crash earlier in the year. But since I started putting money back in the market, the subsequent declines have been no less significant. I am constantly reminded of one piece of wisdom that stuck in my mind from one of the market research reports I read quite a while back:

A stock that drops 90% is a stock that drops 80% and then halves.

Many of my stocks have halved. Nevertheless, I am still very optimistic in the long term, and I thought that for once I would take stock of my key holdings, and review my reasons for holding on to them and averaging down, or whether I should consider cutting losses on some of them. I want to capture a snapshot of my logic so that in another few months from now, I can look back again and laugh or cry.

Gold (STI: GLD.SG)
Of all my holdings, I am most bullish on Gold in the short- to mid-term, and have been trading (mostly accumulating) since June. There are a lot of reasons for this:

• With the announcement of the bailout plans, the US government will reach unprecedented levels of debt. I expect the US dollar to go down, and historically this will drive the price of gold up.
  
• If the bailout plan is successful, I expect high inflationary pressure in the US to increase demand for gold.
• If the bailout plan is not successful, the impending recession will also cause people to retreat to gold.
• Recent weakness in the price of gold is attributed to fund managers being forced to liquidate their holdings to pay off other margins
  
• The other interesting fact is that there is a huge shortage of physical gold. I'm not exactly sure how this relates to the price of futures and ETFs (since the disconnect has existed for quite a while), but the natural inference is that high demand should bring prices up somehow.
• The price is down 25% from its high in Mar 08.
  

Posco (NYSE: PKX)
Posco is a South Korean steel company I have become quite attached to, having made quite a bit on them over the last 2 years. The have a proprietary steel-refining process that is supposed to be the most advanced in the industry.

• My investment in this company is premised on the continued demand for steel from the developing countries.
  
• The stock dropped sharply this year, firstly due to high oil prices and then the global economic decline, but I expect this to recover in the mid- long-term once growth in China, India and Asia resumes.
• Warren Buffet has called this the best steel company in the world and he owns a 4% stake.
• The price is down 70% from its high in Oct 07.

Alexco Resource Corp (AMEX: AXU)
Alexco is an American silver mining company, with large operations in Canada.

• Silver is supposed to be the poor-cousin of Gold, and the two usually trend together although Silver fluctuates more. Currently, the price of Silver has been beaten down much more relative to Gold.
• Unlike Gold, Silver also has industrial applications, hence demand is also affected by the general economy. Hence, the longer-term outlook is also optimistic similar to steel.
• The price is down 80% from its high

Chesapeake Energy Corporation (NYSE: CHK)
Chesapeake is one of the largest natural gas producers in America. The price has fallen sharply lately, but I think the price of energy will remain high in the long term.

• The stock has dropped substantially with the falling price of oil
• The company has cash flow problems in the current tight credit market
  
• The CEO had to liquidate his stake to cover other margins, leading to further price drop
• The price is down 70% from its high in Jul 08

NVIDIA Corporation (NASDAQ: NVDA)
NVIDIA is the leading maker of computer graphics chips. I've been toying with it for a while, and will probably look to buy in over the next few days.

• It is strengthening its dominant position in the graphics industry
  
• The company has a very strong cash position, although the importance of this has lessened slightly
• It has a strong historical annual ROE of 24%
• It has been incorporated into the latest line of Apple computers, which will likely increase demand greatly
• However, the company is facing recent lawsuits over GPU failures, which could be costly
  
• The price is down 80% from its high

SIA (STI: SIAB.SG)
I first bought this expecting the price of oil to fall in the short term. The price of oil fell, but so did everything else! I've since reduced my holdings (contrary to popular sentiment that this is a good stock to accumulate) because I think the airline industry will be hit hard by less travel (esp on the major carriers) in the short term. In the mid- to long-term, bankruptcies and mergers within the industry may improve the buying proposition. So for now, I'll just hang on to a small stake and watch.

UBS (NYSE: UBS)
When I first bought UBS, after GIC had already lost tremendous amounts of money on it, I was optimistic on a quick recovered. Since then it has dropped much further, although the government interventions in both US and Europe have helped stabilise the price. I'm just going to hang on until more positive signs emerge, or perhaps I will diversify by financial holdings with another American bank.

Well, these are my core holdings for now. Most of them are in America, because I figured the American market was a lot closer to bottoming out (although the STI has since caught up significantly). I'll just continue to shop around for now.

One major strategy I've adopted is to decrease the size of my lot purchases. I used to buy about $3000 of stock at a time to minimise the % impact of brokerage fees, but with the ridiculous fluctuations I've decided it is a lot wiser to buy smaller, more frequently. Fortunately, the volatility also makes the brokerage fee less significant as a percentage of expected gains.

So let's see how this goes ...

Wedding Tips

It's wedding season. When you have one wedding(or more) each week for the month, you know it's definitely wedding season. So here are some of the most useful cost-saving tips, not for the guests (too bad) but for the wedding couple.

Charge the Banquet to a Good Credit Card
If your hotel/restaurant allows, it is always better to charge to a card than pay in cash. This allows you to get the points, and it means you don't have to rush to count the gifts to pay the bills. Obviously this will exceed your credit limit, so you can either ask the bank for a temporary increase, or pre-pay the cost of dinner so you don't exceed the limit, or you can do a combination of both.
But if you are going to all this effort, you should definitely use a good card to maximise the points on tens of thousands of dollars. The obvious choice would seem to be a rebate card like Citibank's Dividend Card, which gives you 2% cash back on spending on F&B. Unfortunately a check with the bank revealed that they do not consider hotel weddings to be F&B, so they would only give the 0.5% general rebate. Since it was just a week before my wedding, I was limited to the cards I have on hand, and eventually chose the DBS Amex Black card which gives double points. For those with the luxury of time, it is worthwhile to explore the whole gamut of options, I suspect that the real American Express charge card (which charges an annual fee of $200+) may actually give the best deal on rewards.

Minimising Losses on No-Shows
Every couple's nightmare is to see a room of half-empty tables, with each seat costing more than $100 per head. Some people have the nasty habit of telling you the day before, the day of, or not at all, that they cannot make it. It is ridiculous to rearrange tables at this point, so what can you do about it?
Firstly, check if your venue allows you to seat more than 10 per table. Planning an extra person or two per table is useful, since last-minute withdrawals are inevitable. (As a courtesy to guests, it is preferable that they actual serve extra portions too, rather than just serving smaller portions.) Even better, some hotels like Shangri-La allow you to take portions from a table of 9 and give it to a table of 11. All this helps create substantial savings.
The second way is a little more brawny than brainy. You just have to shamelessly remind your guests that you are getting married about a week beforehand (find some polite excuse, maybe by re-sending the details since many people misplace the cards too), so that they will also be prompted to inform you if they cannot make it. It is amazing how many people forget about weddings, especially wedding lunches.

Well after getting marries and helping and several weddings over the past year, these are the best tips that I hope will be useful for other wedding planners.

weekend in hanoi part ii

Food
Ok, I shall skip to my favourite section. One of the top items on the travel agenda was eating well, and we wanted to sample food across various budgets. Hanoi is of course famous for Pho, and we tried two Pho restaurants. We also tried a variety of other cuisines.

Pho Truang
We picked up a brochure for this restaurant from the tourist info centre, which boasted as having the best authentic Hanoi-style pho. Overall the pho was cheap and good, no complaints. We had our great first bowl of pho here.

Pho 24
Located near the Temple of Literature, we recognised this from some of the travel guide recommendations and popped in to try it. Prices were comparable to Pho Truang (about 28,000VND-39,000 VND for a bowl of Pho), but Pho 24 also had meatballs which were missing from Pho Truang menu. We also felt the broth was superior, although the noodles were slightly less flavoursome. Overall, this was our preferred pho joint. (An interesting note, apparently Pho 24 is actually Southern Vietnamese style, which explains why they provided the accompanying dish of beansprouts and lime wear familiar with in Singapore, whereas Pho Truang did not.)

Bobby Chinn Restaurant
We passed by this restaurant on the way in from the airport, and recognised the name from cooking show fame. We came back the next day to try it for dinner, and had an excellent meal. The food was mainly western style, although they used many Asian spices. Bobby Chinn's quirky humour added to the overall great ambience, which also included red hanging drapes, lovely lighting and two complimentary morsels from the chef. Those certainly added to the experience! Overall the main courses were pretty good, desserts were chocolaty superb, the presentation was excellence par none, and the experience was one of the best I have ever had. (Of course, the great company helped too.) Total cost came up to about 30USD per person.

Scallop on Shell Green Tea Duck
Crab Trio (Soub, Cake, Salad)
Chocolate Mousse
Assorted Brulees (Vanilla, Lemon, Chocolate)

Bobby Chinn's Irreverant Menu

Emperor aka Club De L'Oriental
Emperor was the only Vietnamese restaurant in Hanoi given a 3-star rating by Frommers, so we had to hunt it down. And it was quite a hunt, because the restaurant had relocated to 27 Tong Dan St., Hoan Kiem District (Tel: +84 4-826-8801) as of early 2008. This just goes to show the pace of change in Hanoi now, because the 2007 Frommers review said it was under renovation at the time of writing!
The food there was excellent, with variations on familiar dishes such as chicken in lemon leaves, fried codfish and grilled squid in lemongrass. One interesting dish was the beef wrapped in the local equivalent of betal nut. Another superb dish were the summer rolls, supposedly rated "Best Summer Rolls" by the NYTimes. The best part was the price, which came up to only about USD20 per person, for probably the most delicious meal we had on the trip. The decor and ambience was also lovely, living up to the old name of Emperor with a very old majestic feel, although it didn't quite project the unique experience of Bobby Chinn.

Prawn Summer Rolls

Emperor Salad

Grilled Squid in Lemongrass

Fried Cod Fish

Beef in Betel Leaves

There has been much raving about Fanny Mae Ice Cream on the web. I just thought I'd state for the record that it was ok, but I didn't find it particularly outstanding.

to be continued ...

photos will be updated as travel partners' pictures become available

weekend in hanoi part i

The weekend in Hanoi was filled with memorable food ventures, although other explorations were slightly dampened by the city sauna. To pre-empt the inevitable "how was Hanoi" questions, as well as "what is good in Hanoi", I am putting down all my travel tips and recommendations here for posterity.

Flight and Lodging
We flew to Hanoi via Tiger Airways at a bargain price of about $200 per person, even though the oil price at that time was practically at its peak (Jul 08). We stayed at the Somerset Grand Hanoi, which is a serviced apartment under the Ascott group. It was an excellent apartment with three bedrooms, living room and kitchen, perfect for five people to live in luxury. The price came up to about S$60 per person per night.

Local Transport
Taxis in Hanoi are really cheap, so much so that the exact location of your hotel doesn't really matter. We could get to most places within the Old Quarter for less than 3 SGD, provided we took one important precaution. Ensure that the taxi's meter is encased by tamper-proof acrylic, otherwise a short ride that should be less than 2SGD could quickly become 6SGD. That is probably the most practical travel tip I can give anyone travelling to Hanoi, I'm surprised it wasn't stated in any of our guidebooks.

to be continued...

fat lament

I'm missing the biggest slimming event of the year.

While other Singaporeans are shedding pounts running 21km, I'll be gorging myself on pho and other yummy food in Vietnam, packing on the pounds. This is the great conservation of fats theory.

I felt guilty about not running the marathon, so yesterday I decided to go run on the treadmill. That's when I realised that for the first time, I can feel my belly flopping up and down with each step. Over the years I've watched my belly go from 8-pack to 6-pack to 2-pack to family pack and now, officially, spare tyre! I must be hitting middle age early :(

The problem is that no marathon means no reason to train, which means no motivation to run; which means get fatter and fatter. And I'm not particularly the most self-disciplined person when it comes to running either.

A casual observer would probably have wondered why yesterday, almost in mid-stride, I hit the stop button and abandoned the treadmill. I hadn't even hit 4km yet. But the truth was, I was just overwhelmed by the thoughts of the pork chop I was going to have after the run, and after a while I just lost patience with the run. Running is boring.

But to be fair to the pork chop, that was at least half my motivation for going to the gym anyway, so I shouldn't really blame him. And he totally lived up to my expectations. I should go to the gym more often!

i miss spontaneous

In a rare moment of rumination, I reflected back on some of my fond memories of spontaneous, care-free school days. One particularly memorable time was my final year spring break.

I can't remember why I had no plans that year, but at the last minute I joined a group of schoolmates travelling down to Daytona Beach and the Florida Keys. My university friends are by far the craziest and most fun group, and we tried everything from exploring old towns, sampling delicious food, and even sampled the MTV spring break experience complete with beach parties and crazy sorority girls getting body-painted for the cameras. What lingers most is the taste of the exquisite Key Lime Pie at Key West.

After a week in Florida, we still had a weekend, so a friend and I drove out to the countryside to ride horses for a day. That was pretty random, and lots of fun. That night, having nothing to do (Masters students do not care about homework), I ended up chatting with a friend in Yale over ICQ. She was rushing to finish a paper due early the next morning. Since I had never been to Yale, and she had no plans for the weeked, I decided it was time to visit. So I left at 11pm and reached about 5am, and spent the weekend exploring New Haven.

Fast forward a few years to working life, I can't decide to stay in bed if I feel lazy, I seldom make appointments in the evening because I don't know when work will end, and between work, family and wedding commitments, my weekends are booked out a month in advance. Life is so crowded these days, I miss spontaneous.

best ndp ever

Since I seem to have a tradition of blogging about NDP every year, it seems fitting to end a long silence with another NDP post. I would never voluntarily attend NDP, but this year I was compelled to go, and fortunately I was lucky enough to get one of the best seats in the house.
I must say I thoroughly enjoyed the show. Perhaps it may be because I've avoided NDP for the last few years, so I don't have NDP fatigue. The Black Knights were spectacularly, especially when they dived down on the crowd, and it was really cool how the entire stage backdrop became a huge psychedelic screen. I particularly liked the shadow Silat performance, and the singers were all really good. I liked the dancing as well, probably because they chose to showcase some individual performances rather than relying purely on the standard mass dance routines. Even the parade was great, especially hearing the gun salute in stereo for the first time. And of course, the fireworks were probably the most beautiful even, set against a lovely combination of the city skyline and the water.
It was only when it came to the singing of the national anthem that I realised, with a twinge of guilt, that I did not feel particularly proud to be Singaporean, or on some patriotic high. I felt bad, because I figured it was just cynical me.
But talking to many other people since, the main comment seems to be "no feeling". Some people attributed it to the jaded Singaporeans around them who refused to participate. Another said it was too artsy and the common person couldn't appreciate it. "They even took everybody's favourite song 'Home' and translated it into Tamil, how to sing along?? Why they do that??" So I guess it's not just cynical me then.
But despite all that, this was still the best NDP ever!